Following a recent report from Bloomberg which suggested that Apple is looking to launch its ambitious level 5 autonomous EV by 2025, analysts at investment bank Morgan Stanley are out with a new investor note detailing how the existence of an Apple Car could affect the car industry as a whole.
Apple Car will most likely disrupt the auto industry, according to analysts
Just days after a team of analysts at Morgan Stanley predicted that Apple’s entry into the AR eyewear market will be a “game changer” in augmented reality, the researchers believe the same will happen with the Apple Car but at a slower pace. According to CNBC, Morgan Stanley describes Apple as the “ultimate EV bear case,” for other companies.
Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas said he expects fully-autonomous vehicles to take some years to become major sellers in the markets. “We expect… vehicle penetration to ramp very slowly due to a host of technological and moral/legal/regulatory considerations,” he said. “By FY25 we forecast L5 fully autonomous vehicle sales to be roughly 100k units with the vast majority being outside of the US.” The note explains:
We expect L5 (fully autonomous) vehicle penetration to ramp very slowly due to a host of technological and moral/legal/regulatory considerations. By FY25, we forecast L5 fully autonomous vehicle sales to be roughly 100k units, with the vast majority being outside of the US. By 2030, we forecast L5 sales to surpass 1.8mm units (2% penetration of sales), 0.4% of the global car park, and 0.5% of global miles traveled. By 2040 we forecast L5 penetration to reach 7.6% of global miles traveled. By 2050 we forecast L5 to approach 47% of miles traveled.
Jonas also stated that it is unlikely an Apple Car will be bought by single consumers, instead, it will likely be a shared vehicle. “We believe a car without steering wheel or pedals must be a ‘shared service’ and not an ‘owned car,'” Jonas said. “To be clear, we do not believe consumers will own title to a fully autonomous car… but will engage in the service as a subscription or transport utility.”