Apple shipped 57.3 million iPhones in the third quarter of 2026, which leaves it 500,000 units behind Samsung. Samsung still holds first place with 57.8 million, but the gap in global market share is only 0.2 percentage points.
IDC’s preliminary tracker data shows the global smartphone market shrinking 22.0% year over year to 255.3 million units, the steepest drop the firm has recorded in any quarter. Apple’s shipments fell 4.0%, the smallest decline among the five largest vendors, while Samsung’s fell 5.8%.
Nabila Popal, senior research director for Worldwide Devices at IDC, ties the drop to the memory shortage and says memory costs are up roughly 350% since last year and still rising, though the pace of increase has slowed. Costs for other critical components also remain high.
Apple and Samsung gained share by losing fewer phones than everyone else
Apple’s share of global shipments rose from 18.2% to 22.4% year over year. Samsung went from 18.7% to 22.6%. Together they now account for about 45% of all smartphones shipped, even though both sold fewer phones than a year ago.
Apple shipped 2.4 million fewer iPhones than in the third quarter of 2025, and Samsung shipped 3.6 million fewer phones. The rest of the top five lost far more:
- Samsung: 57.8 million units, 22.6% share, down 5.8%
- Apple: 57.3 million units, 22.4% share, down 4.0%
- Xiaomi: 30.7 million units, 12.0% share, down 29.2%
- OPPO: 25.6 million units, 10.0% share, down 34.5%
- vivo: 19.1 million units, 7.5% share, down 31.5%
Xiaomi, OPPO and vivo together shipped about 35 million fewer phones than a year ago. Francisco Jeronimo, vice president for Worldwide Devices at IDC, says Chinese brands sell heavily at the low end, so they have to choose between protecting margins and defending volume while demand weakens.
Counterpoint Research’s third-quarter estimate put the market decline at 20% and also had Samsung and Apple in the top two spots. IDC’s separate China figures had Apple gaining share in a shrinking market as well.
IDC does not expect a recovery before 2028
IDC expects market growth to stay constrained through 2027, with any recovery pushed to 2028 at the earliest. The firm says phone makers now face a permanent shift in industry costs rather than a temporary spike, and the vendors that adapt their pricing and products to a higher cost base will gain the most share. Nabila Popal, IDC, said, “Current indicators suggest that the market has not yet reached the bottom.”
Jeronimo adds that the pressure is moving from vendors to consumers. As higher prices reach store shelves, many buyers are keeping their current phones longer.
Holiday promotions are the better time to buy, according to IDC
Kiranjeet Kaur, associate research director for Worldwide Devices at IDC, says shoppers who cannot put off a purchase will likely do better with holiday-quarter offers than by waiting for prices to ease. Promotions and discounts are expected to be at their most attractive then. Apple’s iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max, whose orders were reportedly cut by at least 15% earlier this month, head into that window.
Kaur also notes that some vendors raised production plans ahead of an expected tightening in component supply next year. If demand stays weak, that could leave them with inventory heading into 2027 and add downside risk to IDC’s forecast for that year.
In the third quarter of 2025, Samsung shipped 61.4 million phones to Apple’s 59.7 million, a lead of 1.7 million units.
