Global smartphone shipments fell 20% year over year in the third quarter of 2026, and the two biggest brands ended up with a larger slice of what is left. Samsung and Apple together shipped 45% of all smartphones, up about 8 percentage points from a year earlier.
Omdia’s preliminary estimates show the drop speeding up from a 6% decline in the second quarter. Shipments also fell from the second quarter to the third, even though new flagships had launched and vendors were stocking channels for the year-end shopping season. Omdia points to memory and storage costs, which left vendors with little room on pricing and pushed many to pull back on cheaper, thin-margin models.
Samsung and Apple gained share while mass-market brands lost ground
Samsung stayed in first place with a 23% share. Its shipments still fell from a year ago, but by less than the mass-market brands, so its share went up. A broad lineup and global retail reach helped, along with the August launch of the Galaxy Z Fold8 and Galaxy Z Flip8, Omdia says.
Apple came second with a 22% share, and Omdia credits steady demand for the iPhone 17 lineup plus added momentum from the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max after their September launch. The firm also describes the iPhone Duo as Apple’s entry into foldables, a new form factor that could bring in extra demand. On AI, Omdia says Apple Intelligence is not yet a major reason people buy a phone, though it could become a bigger point of difference for Apple over time.
The rest of the top five follows, with OPPO’s figure including realme and OnePlus:
- Samsung: 23% share
- Apple: 22% share
- Xiaomi: 12% share
- OPPO: 9% share
- vivo: 8% share
Hayden Hou, Principal Analyst at Omdia, cautions against reading that ranking at face value as market share alone does not tell the full story. Vendors are weighing shipment volume against revenue and profit in different ways, so unit counts only show part of how each one is doing. Counterpoint Research’s third-quarter figures also show a 20% drop, with the same 23% and 22% for Samsung and Apple, though they put Xiaomi at 10%.
Memory costs are squeezing entry-level phones the hardest
Omdia says rising memory prices are cutting into profit at every price level, with the sharpest effect on cheaper phones. Vendors are reworking their entry-level lineups, choosing more carefully where to sell and at what price, and putting more weight on higher average selling prices. That is the same memory shortage behind earlier reports that Apple could trim its 2026 hardware shipments.
Lucas Zhong, Senior Analyst at Omdia, says the squeeze is worst in emerging markets, where shoppers watch prices closely and brands lean on entry-level phones with already thin margins. He warns that cutting shipments to protect profit has a cost. A brand that fades from stores loses visibility with buyers and retail partners, and that can take years to win back. His advice is to pick markets and products selectively instead of retreating everywhere.
Omdia expects new launches and holiday demand to fall short in the fourth quarter
Zhong says new flagships, promotions and holiday demand are unlikely to fully offset the supply pressure between October and December. Shipment volumes should stay under pressure, but higher prices are slowly changing what buyers expect to pay, which could favor higher-value phones in future upgrade cycles.
Hou says the choices vendors make during this downturn, such as new channel partnerships, device financing and stronger premium lineups, could decide who is better placed once costs ease. Zhong adds that vendors will need tight inventory control plus trade-ins and carrier partnerships to keep upgrades moving without relying on broad discounting.
