Apple is projected to be the only major smartphone maker that ships more phones in 2026 than it did in 2025. Everyone else is forecast to take a steep drop as memory costs keep climbing.
That is the projection from GF Securities analysts Jeff Pu and Henry Huang in an investor note sent this week. They expect Apple to ship 257 million iPhones this year, up 4% and about 10 million more than in 2025, while total global smartphone shipments fall 14.2% to 1.08 billion units.
Apple’s share of global shipments is forecast to reach 24%
Samsung is projected to ship 241 million smartphones, roughly flat from 2025. That works out to about 22% of the market and keeps Apple in first place, a spot it also held in 2024 and 2025.
The note puts Apple at 24% of global shipments in 2026, up from 20% in 2025 and 19% in 2024. Samsung and Apple already hold a combined 45% of global shipments, so the shrinking market is mostly costing smaller brands.
The analysts blame sharply higher memory prices, which have pushed phone makers to cut shipments and raise device prices. They describe 2026 and 2027 as one of the most challenging periods the industry has faced.
Hinge and camera constraints trim the iPhone Duo and iPhone 18 Pro build plans
Apple’s own lineup is not free of problems. The analysts lowered their iPhone Duo build plan from 7 million to 6 million units for 2026 because of hinge constraints.
The iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max build plan drops to 72 million units. The cause there is the adjustable-aperture camera.
Demand for the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max has been lukewarm, according to the note. The analysts partly point to competition from the iPhone Duo and complaints about the weight of the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max. That fits earlier reports that Apple had cut orders for the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max by at least 15%.
The hinge has been a pain point for a while. Earlier reports put iPhone Duo yield at Foxconn in the 60 percent range.
iPhone Duo delivery dates already run into late January
iPhone Duo pre-orders opened on October 16 with prices starting at $1,999. Within hours of the US store opening, delivery estimates for every configuration slipped to January 25.
GF Securities kept its Hold rating on Apple stock with a price target of $369. Apple shares closed at $343.46 on Friday, up 0.43%, and were the only major tech stock to finish in the green during a sector-wide sell-off.
