The iPhone 18 Pro Max may not be selling through as fast as Apple would like, according to one analyst tracking pre-order data. Wait times on several popular configurations have dropped to just a few weeks, well short of a sold-out launch.
GF Securities analyst Jeff Pu shared the claims in a research summary posted to X on today. Pu covers Apple’s supply chain closely, though his track record on timing and specifics has been mixed in the past.
iPhone 18 Pro Max Pre-Order Wait Times Look Lukewarm
Pu describes current wait times for the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max as lukewarm. Most 256GB and 512GB configurations, along with the Burgundy 1TB model, are sitting at three to four weeks in the US, and popular configurations remain in stock at retail.
| Configuration | Current Wait Time |
|---|---|
| 256GB / 512GB (most colors) | 3 to 4 weeks |
| Burgundy 1TB | 3 to 4 weeks |
| Black / Glacier 1TB | 1 to 2 weeks |
| Silver 1TB and 2TB | Immediate for many buyers |
| Most iPhone 18 Pro configs | Immediate |
Pu attributes the slower demand to limited generational upgrades, higher pricing on high-storage models, competition from the iPhone Duo, and ongoing criticism of the phone’s weight.
The iPhone Duo Has a Hinge Problem, According to Pu
Early hands-on feedback on the iPhone Duo is positive by Pu’s account. He notes a smooth fold, a strong inner display, and better multitasking under iOS 27. The trade-offs are real too, including a heavier and thicker body, a visible crease, and a single rear camera setup instead of the multi-lens array on the iPhone 18 Pro models.
Pu claims Apple is cutting its 2026 iPhone Duo build plan from 7 million units to 6 million, and the reason is the hinge. A million-unit cut on a brand new form factor is significant. It points to a manufacturing bottleneck on the hinge mechanism itself, ahead of any demand issue.
Camera Supply Is Squeezing the iPhone 18 Pro Line Too
Pu says Apple is trimming the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max build plan too, cutting it to 72 million units, with the adjustable-aperture camera system as the constraint this time.
- iPhone Duo build plan cut from 7 million to 6 million units (hinge constraint)
- iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max build plan cut to 72 million units (camera constraint)
- Both cuts point to component supply rather than soft demand for the iPhone 18 Pro line specifically
Our Take
I think these two claims point to different problems. The iPhone 18 Pro Max wait times are about consumer demand, and that’s the easier one to check against actual retail stock. The iPhone Duo cut is about manufacturing capacity, since Apple would presumably want to sell more of a device that’s getting good early reviews.
My read is the iPhone Duo issue is the more forgivable one, since hinge problems on a first-generation folding phone are a known risk Apple can iterate its way out of. The iPhone 18 Pro Max situation is tougher, because slow demand in the middle of a launch window isn’t something that can be easily fixed.
Pu is maintaining a Hold rating on Apple stock alongside this note.
