JP Morgan cut its Apple stock price target from $345 to $340, after Apple paired record Q3 revenue with a supply warning that sent the stock down roughly 3% in after-hours trading the night before. The revision reflects a more cautious near-term stance without abandoning the firm’s broader confidence in Apple’s trajectory.
Apple reported $109.4 billion in revenue for Q3 2026, up 16% year over year, and $29.8 billion in net profit, up 27%. Those figures beat expectations, but CFO Kevan Parekh followed them with a pointed caution: “the impact from supply constraints is expected to increase significantly sequentially,” with currency fluctuations adding another headwind of roughly 2.5 percentage points off revenue growth next quarter.
As reported by AppleInsider, JP Morgan had raised its price target to $345 in July, up from the $325 target it set in January, after concluding that Apple’s recent price increases were unlikely to meaningfully affect its long-term growth. The latest cut narrows that optimism to account for near-term pressure the firm did not fully anticipate a few weeks ago.
The bank sees high demand for iPhone 17 and MacBook Neo as sustaining momentum in the current product cycle, with Siri AI’s impending launch expected to drive additional demand heading into Q4 2026. The difficulty is that demand has become part of the problem. Incoming CEO John Ternus said the root cause is not a conventional supply issue but a demand forecasting problem: Apple’s products are selling faster than its supply chain was built to support, and the company is facing limited availability of the advanced chip nodes its processors require.
That situation, where a historically strong product cycle is generating supply headaches rather than clear upside, shapes JP Morgan’s decision to temper near-term expectations. iPhone, iPad, and Mac account for roughly 64% of Apple’s revenue during its fourth fiscal quarter, so the September quarter outlook is particularly sensitive to any shortfalls across those three segments.
iPhone revenue climbed 22% year over year to $54.3 billion, and Mac revenue rose 29% to $10.4 billion, both setting June quarter records but iPad revenue posted a 5% decline. Services growth also slowed, weighed down by weakness in mobile gaming and App Store business model changes in several markets, including the ongoing dispute with Epic Games that is preventing Apple from collecting commissions on purchases completed through external links in the US.
JP Morgan’s long-term thesis remains intact as the firm continues to view Siri AI’s rollout as a meaningful demand catalyst and notes that the iPhone and Mac are performing, in Apple’s own words, “remarkably better” than the company anticipated, which only sharpens the irony of the supply constraints now looming over the next product generation.
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