A new survey from Evercore ISI points to a stronger-than-expected iPhone upgrade cycle this year, with pricing set to add a real tailwind on top of unit growth. The firm’s annual survey covers close to 4,000 consumers and found the newest models leading demand.
According to a report from Investing.com, Evercore told clients pricing could climb more than 20 percent this cycle, driven by higher list prices, pricier models, and a shift toward larger storage configurations. That would come on top of what the survey describes as unit demand that is already running ahead of plan.
“iPhone 18 Pro Max Remains King,” According to Evercore’s Survey
Evercore’s own phrase for the finding was “Pro Max Remains King.” Fifty-three percent of respondents said they plan to buy an iPhone 18 Pro or iPhone 18 Pro Max, and 32 percent specifically want the iPhone 18 Pro Max, up from 29 percent a year ago.
The survey also found more upgrades driven by aging devices this year than last. Sixty-seven percent of respondents cited an aging device as their reason to upgrade, up sharply from 48 percent last year. That combination, more people replacing old phones and a bigger share reaching for the most expensive model, supports Evercore’s pricing thesis.
iPhone Duo Demand Looks Soft for Now
Apple’s new foldable, the iPhone Duo, showed far more subdued purchase intent at 14 percent. Evercore expects that number to climb as the device gets closer to its mid-October launch, giving buyers more time to see the phone in person and read reviews before committing.
The gap lines up with mixed signals iThinkDiff has tracked elsewhere this launch cycle, including earlier reports of iPhone 18 Pro Max pre-order wait times looking softer than expected. A single early survey doesn’t settle that debate, but it does suggest the iPhone 18 Pro Max is carrying more of the demand story than the newer, pricier foldable right now.
Pricing and Wearables Could Push Revenue Higher
As buyers gravitate toward higher storage tiers and Apple rolls out 2-terabyte options across the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone Duo lines, Evercore expects average selling prices to rise about 28 percent. Purchase intent for wearables also climbed, with Apple Watch interest at 38 percent and AirPods at 43 percent, both up from a year ago.
Evercore flagged that its survey is US-specific, but said demand already looks modestly ahead of last year’s pace. The firm sees upside to fiscal 2027 revenue against Street estimates of roughly 7 percent growth, kept its outperform rating on Apple, and raised its price target to $380.
Our Take
A rising average selling price matters more to Apple’s bottom line than a rising unit count does, and this survey points to both moving in the same direction at once. The bigger tell is the 67 percent of respondents citing an old phone as their reason to buy. That means that a replacement cycle is finally catching up with itself after a few slower years, and it explains why Evercore feels comfortable calling this cycle stronger than expected even with iPhone Duo demand still sitting on the sidelines.
