Apple reports its fiscal fourth-quarter results on Monday, November 2, with the numbers due at 1:30 p.m. PT and the conference call starting at 2 p.m. PT (5 p.m. ET). It is the first earnings report with John Ternus as CEO, alongside CFO Kevan Parekh.
Apple posted its third-quarter results on July 30 and told investors on the call to expect September quarter revenue growth of 9 to 11 percent. That works out to $111.7 billion to $113.7 billion against $102.5 billion a year ago. Wall Street expects about $113.3 billion in revenue and earnings of $1.99 per share, which puts the consensus near the top of Apple’s range.
Apple streams the call live on its investor relations page, and a replay is posted afterward.
The quarter holds nine days of iPhone 18 Pro sales and none of the iPhone Duo
The September quarter ran from June 28 to September 26. The iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max went on sale on September 18, so only nine days of sales land in this report. The Apple Watch Series 12, Apple Watch Ultra 4 and AirPods 5 also launched inside the window.
The iPhone Duo belongs to the December quarter. It went on sale on October 23 starting at $1,999, so its first sales show up in the next report.
Parekh’s guidance for the September quarter came in four parts:
- Total revenue growth of 9 to 11 percent
- iPhone revenue growth in the mid-teens, held back by supply constraints
- Gross margin of 47 to 48 percent, including about one point from tariff refunds
- A currency headwind of roughly 2.5 percentage points on revenue growth
Memory costs and a smaller tariff refund put gross margin in focus
The July quarter set a high bar with $109.4 billion in revenue, up 16 percent, and earnings of $2.02 per share against a $1.89 consensus. iPhone revenue rose 22 percent to $54.3 billion and Mac revenue rose 29 percent to $10.4 billion.
Gross margin was 50.1 percent, and about 2 points of that came from tariff refunds that also added $0.11 to earnings per share. The September guide of 47 to 48 percent includes only about one point from those refunds, so the underlying margin takes more pressure this quarter.
Most of that pressure traces back to memory. Tim Cook described the market in June as “a 100-year flood on memory pricing,” and on the July 30 call he said that adding memory suppliers would not necessarily lower prices. IDC puts memory costs up roughly 350 percent since last year, and Apple expects them to keep rising through at least the end of the year.
Services and the December quarter outlook will drive the reaction
Services grew 12 percent to $30.7 billion last quarter, though mobile gaming slowed and App Store regulatory changes in some countries weighed on the number. Parekh flagged both on the July call.
Wall Street’s December quarter consensus sits near $153.4 billion in revenue. Last week Loop Capital downgraded Apple to Hold and modeled 79 million iPhones for that quarter against 85 million on the Street.
Ternus described the constraint in July as a demand forecasting problem, with products selling faster than the supply chain was built to support. Expect analysts to press him on how many iPhone Duo units Apple can build, since the phone has roughly nine weeks of the December quarter to ship before it ends.
The stock enters the report after closing above $5 trillion for the first time on October 15.
