The iPhone 18 Pro could carry a starting price of $1,399, roughly $300 more than the iPhone 17 Pro’s $1,099, according to a research note published this week by Jeff Pu of GF Securities. The projection represents a significant shift in tone from the same analyst who, as recently as May, said Apple could price the iPhone 18 Pro features “aggressively” despite rising memory costs.
Pu now estimates that higher costs for the A20 Pro chip, LPDDR5X memory, and NAND storage are pushing Apple toward a $250 to $300 price increase on its Pro lineup. Memory and storage costs are expected to run roughly 3x higher than last year, driven not by iPhone demand but by the global surge in AI data center buildout, which has created a shortage of the very components Apple relies on. The iPhone 18 Pro Max, instead of $1,199, would reach $1,499 under the same scenario.
In February 2026, Pu was publicly optimistic, suggesting Apple was targeting unchanged or similar pricing for iPhone 18 Pro through disciplined cost management. By May, he still described the potential pricing posture as “aggressive.” The reversal came after Apple raised prices across iPads, Macs, HomePods, Apple TV, and Vision Pro in June 2026, while iPhone models were spared at that point. Combined with continued DRAM and NAND inflation tied to AI infrastructure demand, Pu has now downgraded AAPL from buy to hold, citing “demand uncertainty” if the price hikes materialize.
Pu’s revised estimate is also more pessimistic than earlier projections from IDC, which in June placed the iPhone 18 Pro starting price between $1,249 and $1,299 and the Pro Max between $1,349 and $1,399, implying increases closer to $200. The gap between IDC’s projection and Pu’s latest note reflects how quickly the component cost picture has deteriorated, a trend that shows up in bill of materials estimates as well.
During Apple’s Q3 2026 earnings call on July 31, Cook did not address iPhone pricing directly, though he has previously acknowledged that further price increases are “unavoidable” as Apple absorbs rising component costs. That phrasing carries more weight in light of Pu’s note. Apple has already demonstrated willingness to pass costs through to consumers across its non-iPhone hardware, and with the iPhone 18 cycle approaching a September 2026 launch, there is little runway left to find alternatives.
The iPhone 18 Pro is expected to launch alongside Apple’s first foldable iPhone Ultra, which is expected to carry a price well above $2,000. A $1,399 Pro reads differently next to a $2,000-plus foldable than it does next to a $1,099 predecessor, which may be one reason Apple is comfortable letting that price anchor take hold before Pro pricing is announced.
If Pu’s estimate proves accurate, this would be the steepest single-cycle price jump in iPhone Pro history, arriving at a moment when supply constraints and slowing services growth are already pressuring Apple’s upgrade cycle. Whether Apple absorbs any portion of the cost increase or passes it through entirely will likely define the commercial performance of iPhone 17 demand comparisons analysts is expected to use to benchmark whatever iPhone 18 Pro actually ships for.
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